A heat wave is defined as an abnormally hot period lasting more than five consecutive days.
Volume 4 of the report "Le climat de la France au 21e siècle" entitled “Regionalized scenarios 2014 edition” presents the climate change scenarios in France until 2100. It was written by scientists from Météo-France, in collaboration with other teams in France (CEA, CNRS, UVSQ and UPMC grouped within the IPSL, and Cerfacs), BRGM, CEREMA and CNES, as part of a mission entrusted to Jean Jouzel by the Ministry of Sustainable Development.
This report presents climate change scenarios in France until 2100. For the first time, these projections are also carried out for the overseas territories. Temperatures, precipitation, wind, in average value and in extreme value: in all these fields, the published results, at the forefront of current scientific knowledge, are intended to constitute the reference data for several years. By presenting medium-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) projections, the report makes it possible to perceive the progressiveness of the possible changes while showing the first noticeable impacts.
In mainland France in the near future (2021-2050):
- an increase in average temperatures between 0.6 and 1.3 ° C (highest in the Southeast in summer),
- an increase in the number of heat wave days in summer, especially in the regions of the Southeast quarter,
- a decrease in the number of abnormally cold days in winter throughout metropolitan France, in particular in the regions of the northeast quarter.
By the end of the century (2071-2100), the trends observed at the beginning of the century would intensify, with in particular:
- a sharp rise in average temperatures for certain scenarios: from 0.9 ° C to 1.3 ° C for the lower emission scenario (RCP 2.6), but which can reach 2.6 ° C to 5.3 ° C in summer for the scenario of continuous growth in emissions (RCP 8.5),
- a number of days of heat waves which could exceed 20 days in the southeast of the metropolitan territory for the RCP 8.5 scenario,
- the continued decrease in cold extremes
- more drought episodes in a large southern part of the country, which may extend to the whole country,
a reinforcement of extreme precipitation over a large part of the territory, but with great variability in the areas concerned.
All the results are available on portail DRIAS (http://www.driasclimat.fr/).
Watch a simulated television bulletin based on data predicted by climate models for 2050: Evelyne Dhéliat presents the alarming weather for 2050: see video.
Listen to the weather reports for the southwest of France Winter and summer in 2050 (voice of Joël Collado):
Sources : Météo France, Agence de l’Eau Adour Garonne, DRIAS