The agro-climatic indicator C1, presented below, illustrates the increase in the number of hot days (days where the maximum temperature exceeds 25 ° C.) Between April 15 and July 15.
In the Southwest of France (Cf. Graph below presenting the situation in Haute-Garonne department), where scalding is already a very frequent phenomenon, the number of hot days at the end cycle, would pass, on average from 25 to 40 days (between the recent past - period 1985-2015 - and the near future - period 2015-2045). Without adaptation, this will accentuate the phenomenon of scalding and the negative impact on yields.
Figure:Number of hot days between 15/04 and 15/07 for the department of Haute-Garonne, for the recent past (period 1985-2015) and the near future (period 2015-2045)
In North-eastern France (see graph below presenting the situation in Marne department), scalding is infrequent and only rarely affects yields. Between the recent past and the near future, the number of hot days at the end of the cycle would increase on average from 15 to 25 days. In the near future, the Northeast of France will be in the same situation as the Southwest today. Scalding will be a "usual" component of yield development.
Figure: Number of hot days between 15/04 and 15/07 for the department of Marne, for the recent past (period 1985-2015) and the near future (period 2015-2045)
Source: the climate projections support indicators were calculated from data from the Agri4Cast portail (JRC).