Projections show an increase in heavy daily precipitation in most parts of Europe in winter, but up to 35% during the 21st century. Heavy precipitation in winter is projected to increase over most of Europe, with increase of up to 30% in north-eastern Europe. In summer, an increase is also projected in most parts of Europe, but decreases are projected for some regions in southern and south-western Europe 8EEA, 2016).

Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle and increase the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe. Flash floods and pluvial floods, which are triggered by local intense precipitation events, are likely to become more frequent throughout Europe. In regions with projected reduced snow accumulation during the winter, the risk of early spring flooding could decrease. However, quantitative projections of changes in flood frequency and magnitude remain highly uncertain (EEA, 2012).

Source: Baseline Report AgriAdapt