The term RCP (representative concentration pathway) is used to describe the effects of the possible concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the related radiation effects falling on the ground (e.g. in the case of RCP4.5, the increase in radiation effects is +4.5 W/m2 ).

A report by the Environment Agency “Estonian Future Climate Scenarios 2100” was used as the scientific basis when preparing the Development Plan for Climate Change Adaptation. The said report serves as the base material when assessing the sectors influenced by the state of the atmosphere. The climate projections are prepared based on the global climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A thorough overview of the expected effects of climate change in Estonia is also given in the document “Estonia’s Sixth National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change“.

The objective of climate scenarios is to forecast the temporal-spatial variability of the anthropogenic factors influencing the climate. There must be several scenarios, since the development of the society as a whole and especially the related environmental effects cannot be unambiguously predicted. The scenarios serve as the basis for the comparability between different climate projections. The forecast changes in the main meteorological parameters by the end of the 21st century are presented below.

Source: Estonian Ministry of the Environment,Climate Change Adaptation Development Plan until 2030, 2017

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